How TraderValue Signals Work

A T1 Ignition is the most actionable signal in EdgeOS. It fires on the very first bar where a stock's EdgeOS bull counter reaches 1 after a reset — the opening moment of a new bull cycle. Think of it as the starting gun, not the midrace marker.

Entry criteria: Price breaks above the trigger price (the close on the count-1 bar). Stop: Below the trigger (a close below invalidates the setup). Initial target: +1.0× ATR from the trigger. Extension target: +1.618× ATR.

7-year backtest results (n=462,000 confirmed-bull signals):

• Overall win rate: 55%
• Reach count-9 continuation: 16%
• Win rate when exiting at +1.618× ATR: 83%
• Average loss when stopped below trigger: −2.1%

T1 ignitions within 1% of the trigger price have a 16% probability of reaching count-9, versus 4.8% for entries far below trigger. Entry proximity matters.

SCTR scores each stock from 0 to 100 using a blend of momentum and trend indicators across three timeframes simultaneously:

• Long-term (40% weight): 89-day EMA slope + 89-day Rate of Change
• Medium-term (30% weight): 34-day EMA slope + 13-day Rate of Change
• Short-term (30% weight): 3-bar PPO (Price Percentage Oscillator) + 14-period RSI

TraderValue thresholds:

• SCTR > 9 = bullish condition. Required for T1 ignition entry.
• SCTR 4–9 = choppy / neutral. No directional edge.
• SCTR < 4 = bearish condition. Required for bear ignition entry.

Counterintuitively, low SCTR in confirmed bull trend outperforms high SCTR at entry (18.7% vs 14.7% probability of reaching count-9). High SCTR at entry indicates accumulated momentum that may already be extended. Use SCTR for universe filtering, not as a quality gate — the trend type is the primary quality signal.

The EdgeOS counter tracks position within the current bull or bear cycle, bar by bar. Understanding the count tells you whether to enter, hold, or take profits.

Bear counts work symmetrically. Bear count-1 = bear T1 ignition (short entry below bear trigger). Bear count-9 = bear exhaustion target (cover shorts).

Saty ATR levels provide a precise grid of support and resistance zones around the previous period's close, derived from Wilder's Average True Range (14 bars). Four levels each direction:

• ±0.236× ATR — Trigger zone (entry/stop boundary)
• ±0.618× ATR — Mid target (first partial profit level)
• ±1.0× ATR — Normal ATR target
• ±1.618× ATR — Extension target (83% win rate exits here)

Available in four timeframes: Day (daily ATR), Swing (monthly), Position (quarterly). The most widely used is the Swing (monthly) ATR for position trades held 5–15 bars.

Key backtest finding: When a T1 ignition exit reaches the 1.618× ATR extension, the historical win rate is 83.1%. When the position is closed below the trigger without reaching any ATR target, the win rate drops to 4.1%. Let the ATR levels do the work — don't exit early.

GEX (Gamma Exposure) quantifies how much market makers must buy or sell the underlying stock to remain delta-neutral as prices move. This creates predictable support and resistance zones that are independent of price action indicators.

Three key levels on every GEX chart:

• Call Wall — The strike with highest positive gamma. Dealers sell the underlying as price approaches, creating resistance. Price often "pins" to the Call Wall near expiration.
• Put Wall — The strike with highest negative gamma. Dealers buy the underlying as price falls, creating support. Acts as a floor during selloffs.
• Flip Zone (Zero Gamma) — Price level where dealer gamma changes sign. Below the flip, moves are amplified (dealers sell into down moves). Above the flip, moves are dampened (dealers buy into down moves). Knowing which side of the flip you are on tells you whether market structure is stabilizing or amplifying.

GEX is recalculated daily from options open interest data. It's most reliable within 1–2 weeks of major expiration dates (monthly OPEX).

Market breadth measures participation: how many stocks are in a bullish condition, not just whether SPY is up. A rally driven by 5 mega-cap stocks is fragile. A rally where 60% of the S&P 500 shows SCTR > 9 is durable.

TraderValue breadth scans 3,000+ liquid US stocks (ADV ≥ $40M) daily and computes:

• Bull count — % of stocks with SCTR > 9 (bullish condition)
• Bear count — % of stocks with SCTR < 4 (bearish condition)
• Sector breakdown — Bull/bear split by GICS sector

How to use it: When bull breadth > 50%, take T1 ignition signals in full size. When bull breadth < 30%, reduce size on all longs. When bull breadth drops while SPY rises, watch for a breadth divergence top — the index is being carried by fewer and fewer names.

Unusual options flow tracks large institutional trades that stand out from normal activity. TraderValue screens for:

• Dollar premium ≥ $50,000 per trade
• Volume / Open Interest ratio ≥ 0.30 (new positioning, not existing hedges)
• Sweeps — orders hitting multiple exchanges simultaneously (urgency signal)

Sentiment classification: A bought call or sold put = BULLISH (buyer wants upside). A bought put or sold call = BEARISH (buyer wants downside or protection). The fill side (bid vs ask) confirms whether the institution is initiating or closing.

When flow aligns with EdgeOS: Bullish unusual flow on a stock showing bull=1 the same day is the highest-conviction setup in the system. Institutional capital entering at the same bar as the T1 ignition means both the options market and the price-action signal agree. Historical edge is meaningfully higher for these convergence setups versus either signal alone.