FOMC meeting dates, CPI inflation releases, NFP jobs reports, and other high-impact macro events that move markets. Includes historical SPY reaction analysis and EdgeOS signal behavior around Fed events.
Historical averages based on 2019–2025 SPY price data. FOMC days include both the rate decision (2 PM ET) and press conference (2:30 PM ET) volatility. The largest FOMC moves occur at quarterly meetings (March, June, September, December) when the SEP dot-plot is updated. CPI moves are measured from the 8:30 AM ET open to close.
EdgeOS bull signals that fire within 5 trading days before an FOMC meeting have a slightly lower 52% win rate vs 55% normally, due to increased volatility and institutional position squaring ahead of the rate decision. This effect is most pronounced for small-cap names (SCTR below 30) and extended setups (ext_score above 1.0).
Post-FOMC setup: the strongest T1 ignitions historically occur within 2 trading days after a Fed event — either from the relief rally after a dovish surprise, or from a rotation into sectors benefiting from the new rate path. In 2025, the highest-conviction post-FOMC T1 ignitions were in Technology and Consumer Discretionary after each rate-cut confirmation.
CPI day setup: when CPI comes in below consensus (cool inflation), SPY often gaps up and the EdgeOS ignition count spikes within 30 minutes as SCTR scores update intraday. These gap-and-go T1 setups on cool CPI days have historically had a 58% win rate — above the 55% baseline — because the macro catalyst provides additional confirmation.
Watch the Oracle ML signal on FOMC and CPI days: the Market Internals score (25% weight) reacts within minutes to the macro print, often changing from NEUTRAL to BUY or SELL before the EdgeOS daily signal updates.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets 8 times per year. The 2026 FOMC schedule: January 28, March 18, May 6, June 17, July 29, September 16, October 28, and December 16. Meetings with quarterly economic projections (SEP) are March, June, September, and December — those typically have larger market moves because the "dot plot" updates rate path expectations.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is released monthly, typically 2–3 weeks after the reference month. CPI reports historically cause ±0.8% SPY moves on the day. A hotter-than-expected CPI (inflation above consensus) typically sends yields higher and equities lower, as it signals the Fed may keep rates higher for longer. A cooler CPI typically rallies equities and bonds. The most market-sensitive component is core CPI (excluding food and energy), which the Fed watches most closely for setting rate policy.
The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) report is released on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET. It averages ±0.6% SPY move on the release day. A stronger-than-expected jobs number is often bearish for equities (higher rates) but can be bullish if it signals economic strength. The key market reaction depends on the current Fed narrative: in rate-hike cycles, good jobs = bearish for equities. In rate-cut cycles, good jobs = bullish. Watch VIX and the 2-year Treasury yield immediately after the release — if they don't spike on a hot NFP, the equity reaction will likely be muted.
EdgeOS bull signals that fire within 5 trading days before an FOMC meeting have a slightly lower 52% win rate vs 55% normally, due to increased volatility and position squaring ahead of the decision. Best practice: (1) if already in a T1 ignition trade, consider tightening your stop to the trigger price rather than exiting, as the post-Fed rally can be sharp; (2) avoid initiating new T1 entries within 2 days of FOMC if extension score is Stretch or Extended; (3) for CPI and NFP days, watch for a T1 ignition on SPY or QQQ within 30 minutes of the report — these gap-and-go setups after a favorable macro read have historically followed through. Never hold undefined-risk options through a Fed event.
Intraday BUY/SELL/NEUTRAL signal that reacts to macro events in real-time
Real-time T1 ignition scan tape — see which setups emerge after Fed events
How T1 ignitions, SCTR scores, and win rates work across market regimes
Fed event dates sourced from federalreserve.gov · For informational purposes only · Not investment advice · Historical SPY reactions are averages and do not predict future results.